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To illustrate
the difficulty of defending against the semi-bluff, we'll take a seven-card
stud hand from our discussion of semi-bluffing in the preceding topic
and reverse roles:
Suppose you bet on fourth
street, and your opponent raises. Knowing your opponent is fully capable
of semi-bluffing in this spot with something like a pair of 7s in the
hole, you still should
probably not call with a pair of 9s. He may in fact have a pair of queens
or jacks. Or he may be semi-bluffing with a four-flush. The problem is
that your pair of 9s is no favorite over a four-flush with a jack and
a queen. Thus, if your opponent has a pair of jacks, a pair of queens,
or two pair, you may lose because he already has you beat; and if he has
a four-flush, you may lose because he outdraws you (which with his over
cards as well, he's a favorite to do). Even if your opponent has nothing
better than a gut-shot straight draw, your two 9s with a king kicker are
not a hand to be excited about. Consequently, even though you suspect
this opponent is semi-bluffing, it doesn't do you much good to call with
a poor hand because you have two ways of losing: You may lose to a legitimate
hand or by being outdrawn.
Suppose you grit your teeth, close your eyes, and call your opponent's
bet. on the table and deals the next card:
you to make a mistake, according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker,
in contrast to what you would have done if you could see your opponent's
hand. Your opponent gained, and you lost. However, not knowing what your
opponent had, you did make the only sensible play.)
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